NFL Betting FAQ
Everything you need to know about NFL betting, odds, and strategy.
The point spread is a handicap that oddsmakers use to level the playing field between two teams. The favorite must win by more than the spread (e.g., -7 means win by 8+), while the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
-110 is the standard juice/vig on NFL spreads and totals. It means you risk $110 to win $100. This 10% margin is how sportsbooks make money on evenly bet games.
A moneyline bet is simply picking which team wins. Favorites have negative odds (risk more to win less), underdogs have positive odds (risk less to win more). No point spread involved.
Totals betting is wagering on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a number set by oddsmakers. NFL totals typically range from 35-55 points.
Key numbers are the most common margins of victory: 3 (field goal), 7 (touchdown), 10, 6, and 14. About 15% of NFL games land on 3. Getting +3 vs +2.5 is significant value.
Lines move due to betting action (especially sharp money), injury news, weather changes, or public betting trends. Sportsbooks adjust to balance their risk exposure.
Sharp money comes from professional bettors with winning track records. Sportsbooks respect their action and move lines accordingly. Following sharp action can identify value.
Lines often move Sunday-Monday when sharps bet early, after injury reports (Wednesday-Friday), and close to kickoff as late-breaking news emerges.
Reverse line movement occurs when a line moves opposite to public betting percentages. If 70% bet Team A but the line moves toward Team B, sharp money is likely on Team B.
Wind over 15mph significantly impacts passing games and field goals. Rain and snow can lower scoring. Cold weather alone doesn't affect totals much if conditions are calm.
Historically yes, but home field advantage has declined. It's worth about 1-2 points now versus 3 points decades ago. Factor in travel, time zones, and crowd noise.
Teams coming off byes historically perform well straight-up but ATS results are mixed. The market has adjusted to factor in rest advantage.
Thursday Night Football and short-week games tend to be lower scoring and uglier. Teams with less travel and younger rosters handle short weeks better.
Bet early if you expect the line to move against you. Wait if you need injury news or expect favorable movement. Track line movements to develop timing intuition.
6-point 2-team teasers crossing 3 and 7 can be +EV in the NFL. The math works when you move through key numbers. Avoid 3+ team teasers.
Extremely important. Getting -6.5 instead of -7, or -105 instead of -110, adds up massively over hundreds of bets. Always compare odds across books.
Most bankroll strategies suggest 1-3% per bet. Flat betting protects against variance. Never chase losses with larger bets.